Category: Interviews

Last week, on 01 November 2024, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station, by Chua Tian Tian, the co-host of the station’s The Evening Runway show. We discussed a number of topics, some of which are:

• What the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision and the US September Personal Consumption Expenditure numbers mean for stocks (Hints: It’s important to differentiate between the economy and the stock market; even the US Federal Reserve has very little control over the movement of US stocks, according to recent research from New York University finance professor, Aswath Damodaran)
• What the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s lawsuit against Optus Mobile means for Singtel (Hint: Optus represents only a minority of Singtel’s overall earnings, so even if Optus’s entire business is zero-ed, it would not be catastrophic for Singtel; but it’s very unlikely that Optus’s business would be materially diminished because of the lawsuit)
• The latest earnings results of the mega-cap US technology companies (Hint: Apple is increasingly becoming a services business; Microsoft’s latest comments on its AI revenues is positive for the sustainability of the business; Meta is already seeing clear improvements in its core advertising business from its AI investments; Intel’s future depends on the success of its foundry business, which is struggling at the moment because Intel’s most advanced chip designs are actually outsourced to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
• What the upcoming US presidential election means for the US stock market (Hint: The returns an investor can earn from 1950 to 2024 by staying invested across all US presidents absolutely dwarfs what the investor can earn from only investing under Republican presidents or Democrat presidents)

You can check out the recording of our conversation below!

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Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Last week, on 06 August 2024, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station, by Chua Tian Tian, the co-host of the station’s The Evening Runway show. We discussed a number of topics, including:

• The Singapore stock market’s recovery after a big fall in the Nikkei on 05 August 2024 that sparked a rout in global financial markets (Hints: What will ultimately matter for the Straits Times Index’s long-term recovery will be the underlying business-health of its three major constituents – the banks DBS, OCBC, and UOB – which collectively account for around half of the index; based on their latest results, “steady as it goes” sounds like an apt description of what’s going on with the banks)
• How sustainable is the optimism surrounding pure-play US office REITs in Singapore’s stock market on expectations that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates (Hint: Singapore-listed US office REITs are facing two problems – low occupancies and high borrowing costs – and the Federal Reserve’s actions may at best alleviate only one of the problems, that of high borrowing costs)
• My read on the Bank of Japan’s recent monetary policy tightening that triggered a historic plunge in Japanese stocks and contributed to global market turmoil (Hint: Big declines in stocks are bound to happen so it’s important to be investing in a way that allows us to stay in the game; meanwhile, the really good days in stocks tend to cluster with the really bad days in stocks, and if we miss just a small handful of the really good days, our long-term returns will be dramatically affected)
• The impact of NVIDIA’s reported delays in the development of its latest chips to the company’s competitive edge (Hint: It’s unlikely for the delay to result in the loss of any competitive edge because NVIDIA’s real competitive edge lies in the familiarity that most of the AI community has with the company’s CUDA software platform)

You can check out the recording of our conversation below!

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Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Meta Platforms. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Last week, on 16 July 2024, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station. My friend Willie Keng, the founder of investor education website Dividend Titan, was hosting a segment for the radio show and we talked about a few topics:

• The drivers behind the stock price performance of US banks (Hints: In the short term, banks are facing pressure in a few areas, namely, a lower net interest margin, weak demand for commercial loans, and a continued deterioration in the US office properties market; in the long run, it’s the healthy of the US economy that will be the key driver and the economy still looks to be on solid footing even though there are some signs of a slow down)
• My views on Goldman Sachs’ latest results (Hints: Goldman produced strong growth in the second quarter of 2024 and as an investment bank, this may be a sign of activity in the financial markets warming up) 
• US stocks from the financial sector that are on my radar (Hint: I have been interested in thrift conversions, which is a niche corner of the US banking industry; thrifts, which are small community banks in the USA, tend to carry low valuations and get acquired at relatively high valuations)
• Salesforce’s latest round of layoffs (Hint: It’s likely to be part of the normal day-to-day decisions that management has to make to keep costs in check; Salesforce has been on a quest to improve its margins since late 2022 and has been successful in doing so)
• The impact of artificial intelligence, or AI, on software-as-a-service businesses (Hint: There are multiple possible outcomes, although my current stance is that AI will be a net positive for SaaS businesses)
• Why it’s so difficult to tell when the stock market will peak (Hint: When looking at important financial data – such as valuations, interest rates, and inflation – at the cusp of past bear markets in US stocks, no clear signal can be found)
• How valuations impact long-term returns (Hint: In general, when valuations are high, long-term returns tend to be low; conversely, when valuations are low, long-term returns tend to be high)
• What can investors do to help themselves ride through market cycles (Hint: It’s critical to constantly remind ourselves of what is important – the underlying long-term business performance of a stock)
• The concept of the “destination” (Hint: The concept of the destination is the idea of focusing on the eventual returns we can earn from a business over a multi-year, perhaps even multi-decade, holding period, and ignoring what happens in between)

You can check out the recording of our conversation below!

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Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Adobe, Microsoft, and Salesforce. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Last week, on 19 June 2024, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station. My friend Willie Keng, the founder of investor education website Dividend Titan, was hosting a segment for the radio show and we talked about a few topics:

• Singapore Telecommunications’ and KKR’s joint-investment of S$1.75 billion in ST Telemedia Global Data Centres (Hints: Singtel’s share of the initial investment is S$400 million and should not cause Singtel to struggle financially in any way if it does not work out; ST Telemedia Global Data Centres has a portfolio of 95 data centres, but it is a private company so it’s hard to tell how much value Singtel will be getting in exchange)
• The drivers behind Nvidia’s rise to surpass Microsoft in market cap to become the most valuable public company in the world (US$3.3 trillion market cap), and the potential risks and challenges the company might face (Hints: In my view, Nvidia’s rise is driven by the interplay of enthusiasm over AI and the company’s excellent business results; the risks faced by the company include potential pricing-pressure from a key supplier, and competing products from its main customers) 
• How I identify value opportunities in the US stock market when market indices are at record levels (Hint: The way to look for opportunities is to look at a stock as a piece of a business and figure out the economic value of the underlying business)
• How I manage investing risks (Hint: It starts with defining what risk is, and isn’t) 

You can check out the recording of our conversation below!

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Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and TSMC. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Earlier this week, on 21 May 2024, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station, by Chua Tian Tian, the co-host of the station’s The Evening Runway show. We discussed a number of topics, including:

• OUE’s announcement to buy back up to around 84 million shares in an off-market purchase (Hint: It looks like good capital allocation from OUE’s management on the surface because the company ended 2023 with a book value per share of S$4.31; the buybacks, which could be up to 10% of OUE’s outstanding shares, would be done at a price of S$1.25 per share, which equates to a price-to-book ratio of just 0.3; the buybacks would also not harm OUE’s balance sheet in any material way since it would cost S$105 million at most while the company ended 2023 with shareholder’s equity of S$3.6 billion)
• Singapore Airlines’ agreement with Garuda Indonesia to explore revenue sharing arrangements for flights between Indonesia and Singapore, and to partner on their frequent flyer programmes (Hint: The latest agreement is unlikely to move the needle for Singapore Airlines because the entire SIA group serves more than 100 destinations in nearly 40 countries and Indonesia is just one of many key markets for the airline)
• City Developments’ sales revenue in Singapore for the first quarter of 2024 and what it means for the property sector in Singapore (Hint: City Developments had a strong performance, but the company’s numbers cannot be seen as a broad read-through of Singapore’s property market)
• Tencent’s suspension of its Dungeon & Fighter Mobile game within an hour of its Chinese debut and what it means for the company (Hint: For now, it seems that the game is enjoying really strong demand from gamers, and this bodes well for Tencent’s business)
• The bankruptcy of US seafood restaurant chain Red Lobster (Hint: Red Lobster appears to have been badly mismanaged; court documents for its bankruptcy revealed that Red Lobster’s restaurant leases were “priced above market rates” and there were questionable aspects with its food ingredient procurement practices)
• Nvidia’s earnings and what it means for the company’s share price (Hint: How Nvidia’s share price will react in the short run is anybody’s guess, but over the long run, the company’s share price movement will be determined by its business performance; its business performance, will in turn – at least based on the current picture – be largely determined by the growth in demand for its AI GPUs in the years ahead)

You can check out the recording of our conversation below!

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Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Costco, Tencent, and TSMC. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Last week, on 9 April 2024, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station, by Chua Tian Tian, the co-host of the station’s The Evening Runway show. We discussed a number of topics, including:

• Seatrium and Global Invacom’s announcements of three consecutive years of annual losses and what the implications are for investors in the companies (Hint: Seatrium has been making annual losses since 2018 but management has a plan to turn things around and reduce the company’s reliance on the oil & gas industry, although it remains to be seen if management can execute on their plan; meanwhile Global Invacom has been making losses periodically and even when it was profitable, its margins have been slim)
• Cordlife’s announcement that about 5,300 cord-blood units under its care are at high risk of being exposed to high temperatures, and its promise to offer refunds and waivers to affected customers (Hint: The refunds and waivers will have a significant impact on Cordlife’s financials for 2024, but the even more important impact to the company’s business is a potential loss of reputation among customers)
• What do companies look at when considering where to IPO, and whether Singapore is near the top of their potential listing locations (Hint: Singapore is unlikely to be in the list of considerations as a potential IPO location for many companies)
• Near-term inflation and interest rate expectations (Hint: Inflation and interest rates are not that important for long-term investors in the stock market)
• How far can Donald Trump cash out with Trump Media & Technology Group? (Hint: Between the two scenarios of Trump Media Technology Group being severely overvalued or severely undervalued, it’s way more likely that the company is currently being severely overvalued)

You can check out the recording of our conversation below!

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Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I do not have a vested interest in any companies mentioned. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Earlier this week, on 11 March 2024, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station, by Chua Tian Tian, the co-host of the station’s The Evening Runway show. We discussed a number of topics, including:

• City Developments’ S$5.5 million share buyback on 8 March 2024 and the implications behind the company’s move (Hint: City Developments rarely conducts share buybacks, and this recent buyback happened at a time when the company’s price-to-book ratio is at 0.6, which is near a 10-year low)
• Rumours on a privatisation deal for Japfa from its controlling shareholders (Hint: Japfa’s business has historically been cyclical and it appears that its business results are picking up after a rough few years; at the same time, the company’s valuation looks really low on the surface)
• The improvement in Singapore’s business sentiment and what it means for Singapore-listed counters from the sectors with the most positive outlooks (Hint: A rising tide may not lift all boats)
• What would it take for the Chinese property market to rebound (Hint: Demand for Chinese properties is collapsing while Chinese property developers are facing severe financial strain, leading to even lesser demand for Chinese properties)
• What would a new Mario movie in 2026 mean for Nintendo (Hint: It’s likely to be a boon for Nintendo in the short run, but the long run impacts are less clear)

You can check out the recording of our conversation below!

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Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Meta Platforms. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Earlier this week, on 12 December 2023, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station. My friend Willie Keng, the founder of investor education website Dividend Titan, was hosting a segment for the radio show and we talked about a few topics concerning the US stock market:

• Context on the US stock market’s strong performance so far in 2023 (Hint: Investors should not be surprised by the 20%-plus year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 because the index has historically been more likely to produce a gain of 20% or more in a calendar year than to experience a loss)
• The impact on US stocks from a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Hint: US stocks have historically tended to fall over a 1-year period after interest rate cuts, but it’s hard to say if a similar decline will happen again if the Fed does cut rates in 2024, since how stocks react will also depend on the reason for any interest rate cuts)
• The risks of investing in the US stock market right now (Hint: The world we live in today is no less risky compared to yesterday, or a month ago, or a year ago, or even 10 years ago – the only thing that changes is our perception on the level and the types of risk that the world is facing. Instead of thinking about specific risks, it’s far more important to introduce elements of anti-fragility into our portfolios)
• The opportunities I see in US stocks (Hint: Meta Platforms has overcome the key problems that were plaguing its business over the past year, and currently has an undemanding valuation) 

You can check out the recording of our conversation below!

Notes (where my data on US market history was sourced from):

• The Motley Fool
• Ben Carlson: Here and here
• Nick Maggiulli

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Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Meta Platforms. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Last week, on 31 March 2023, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station. My friend Willie Keng, the founder of investor education website Dividend Titan, was hosting a segment for the radio show and we talked about a few topics:

• Alibaba’s recent announcement that it would be splitting into six business units and what the move could mean for its shareholders
• What investors should look out for now when it comes to China’s technology sector
• The risks involved with investing in technology companies

You can check out the recording of our conversation below!

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Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have no vested interest in any companies mentioned. Holdings are subject to change at any time.