Category: Investing Analysis

News broke yesterday that the embattled water treatment firm Hyflux has finally signed a S$400 million rescue deal with Utico, a utilities company based in the Middle East.

Although Hyflux has now been given a lifeline with Utico injecting capital, shareholders and creditors of the water treatment company don’t have much to smile over. There are important lessons we can learn from Hyflux’s experience.

Painful lifeline

Hyflux and Utico’s agreement came after months of talks between the two. It had also been over a year since Hyflux filed for bankruptcy protection in May 2018 and suspended the trading of its ordinary shares, preference shares, and perpetual securities.

The rescue deal will see Utico take a 95% stake in Hyflux at a value of S$300 million. This means that all of Hyflux’s existing owners of ordinary shares will emerge holding 5% of the company, with a value of merely S$15.8 million. Just prior to the May 2018 trading suspension, Hyflux had a total market value (or market capitalisation) of S$165 million. In other words, Hyflux’s ordinary shareholders are now facing a haircut of around 90%.

Meanwhile, there are 34,000 individuals who hold Hyflux’s preference shares and/or perpetual securities that collectively have a face value of S$900 million. Utico’s rescue deal will see these 34,000 individuals receive total payment ranging from only S$50 million to S$100 million. Even at a S$100 million payout, the owners of Hyflux’s preference shares and perpetual securities are still staring at a loss of 89%.

Avoiding disasters

It’s great timing that a user of the community forums of personal finance portal Seedly asked a question yesterday along the lines of “How can we avoid Hyflux-like disasters?” I answered, and I thought my response is worth sharing with a wider audience, hence me writing this article. Parts of my answer are reproduced below (with slight tweaks made for readability): 

“I’m not a pro, nor will I wish anyone to follow my investing thoughts blindly. But I used to write for The Motley Fool Singapore, and I wrote a piece on Hyflux in May 2016 when the company issued its S$300 million, 6% perpetual securities [the offering was eventually upsized to S$500 million].

The Fool SG website is no longer available, but there’s an article from The Online Citizen published in June 2018 that referenced my piece.

Back then, I concluded that Hyflux’s perpetual securities were risky after looking through the company’s financials. That was because the company had a chronic inability to generate cash flow and its balance sheet was really weak. Those risks sadly flared up in 2018 and caused pain for so many of the company’s investors.

What I wrote was this: “According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Hyflux has been generating negative cash flow from operations in each year from 2010 to 2015. Meanwhile, the company currently has a net-gearing ratio (net debt to equity ratio) of 0.98, which isn’t low.””

What I shared was the financial traits I found in Hyflux that made me wary about the company. The great thing about those traits are that they can be applied to most situations in investing.

Simple rules

In my response to the Hyflux question in Seedly, I also mentioned (emphasis is added now):

“There are many things about a company to look at when investing. But I believe there are some simple rules that can help us avoid trouble. The rules are not fool-proof and nothing is fool-proof in investing, but they do work in general. The rules are: (1) Be careful when a company is unable to produce cash flow from its business consistently; and (2) be careful when the company’s balance sheet is burdened heavily by debt.”

The parts in italics above are rules that I believe are simple, yet incredibly effective. They also form part of my investment framework. Those rules are sometimes meant to be broken, as is the case with my decision to stay invested in Netflix, which has trouble generating cash flow and a heavy debt load for a good reason. But if we stick to the two rules with discipline, I believe we can keep ourselves out of trouble in the stock market most of the time.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life.

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is one of the companies that’s in my family’s portfolio. I first bought Netflix shares for the portfolio in September 2011 at a price of US$26, again in March 2012 at US$16, and yet again in August 2017 at US$170. I’ve not sold any of the shares I’ve bought. 

The company has done really well for my family’s portfolio, with its share price rising to around US$300 now. But it is always important to think about how a company’s business will evolve going forward. What follows is my thesis for why I still continue to hold Netflix’s shares. 

Company description

Netflix is based and listed in the US. When it IPO-ed in 2002, Netflix’s main business was renting out DVDs by mail. It had 600,000 subscribers back then, and had an online website for its members to access the rental service. 

Today, Netflix’s business is drastically different. In the first nine months of 2019, Netflix pulled in US$14.7 billion in revenue, of which 98% came from streaming; the remaining 2% is from the legacy DVD-by-mail rental business. The company’s streaming content includes TV series, documentaries, and movies across a wide variety of genres and languages. These content are licensed from third parties or produced originally by Netflix. 

Many of you reading this likely have experienced Netflix’s streaming service, so it’s no surprise that Netflix has an international presence. In the first nine months of 2019, 48% of Netflix’s revenue came from the US, with the rest spread across the world (Netflix operates in over 190 countries). The company counted 158.3 million subscribers globally as of 30 September 2019. 

Investment thesis

I will describe my investment thesis for Netflix according to the investment framework (consisting of six criteria) that I previously laid out in The Good Investors. 

1. Revenues that are small in relation to a large and/or growing market, or revenues that are large in a fast-growing market

Netflix already generates substantial revenue and has a huge base of 158.3 million subscribers. But there’s still plenty of room for growth. 

According to Statista, there are 1.05 billion broadband internet subscribers worldwide in the first quarter of 2019. Netflix has also been testing a lower-priced mobile-only streaming plan in India. The test has done better-than-expected and Netflix is looking to test mobile-only plans in other countries too. Data from GSMA showed that there were 3.5 billion mobile internet subscribers globally in 2018. 

I’m not expecting Netflix to sign up the entire global broadband or mobile internet user base – Netflix is not in China, and I doubt it will ever be allowed into the giant Asian nation. But there are still significantly more broadband and mobile internet subscribers in the world compared to Netflix subscribers, and this is a growth opportunity for the company. It’s also likely, in my view, that the global number of broadband as well as mobile internet users should continue to climb in the years ahead. This grows the pool of potential Netflix customers.

For another perspective, the chart immediately below illustrates clearly that cable subscriptions still account for the lion’s share of consumer-dollars when it comes to video entertainment. This is again, an opportunity for Netflix. 

Subscribers to online subscription video services across the world has also exploded in the past few years. This shows how streaming is indeed a fast-growing market – and in my opinion, the way of the future for video entertainment. 

As a last point on the market opportunity for Netflix, as large as the company already is in the US, it still accounts for only 10% of consumers’ television viewing time in the country, and even less of their mobile screen time.  

2. A strong balance sheet with minimal or a reasonable amount of debt

At first glance, Netflix does not cut the mustard here. As of 30 September 2019, Netflix’s balance sheet held US$12.4 billion in debt and just US$4.4 billion in cash. This stands in sharp contrast to the end of 2014, when Netflix had US$900 million in debt and US$1.6 billion in cash. Moreover, Netflix has lost US$9.3 billion in cumulative free cash flow from 2014 to the first nine months of 2019. 

But I’ll explain later why I think Netflix has a good reason for having so much debt on its balance sheet.

3. A management team with integrity, capability, and an innovative mindset

On integrity

Netflix is led by CEO Reed Hastings, 58, who also co-founded the company in 1997. The long-tenure of Hastings in Netflix is one of the things I like about the company. 

Although Hastings is paid a tidy sum to run Netflix – his total compensation in 2018 was US$36.1 million – his pay has reasonably tracked the company’s revenue growth. From 2014 to 2018, Netflix’s revenue nearly tripled from US$5.5 billion to US$15.8 billion. This matches the 326% jump in Hastings’ total compensation from US$11.1 million to US$36.1 million over the same period.  

Hastings also owns 5.56 million Netflix shares as of 8 April 2019, along with the option to purchase 4.50 million shares. His ownership stake alone is worth around US$1.7 billion at the current share price, which will very likely align his interests with other Netflix shareholders.

On capability and innovation

Netflix was an early pioneer in the streaming business when it launched its service in 2007. In fact, Netflix probably wanted to introduce streaming even from its earliest days. Hastings said the following in a 2007 interview with Fortune magazine: 

“We named the company Netflix for a reason; we didn’t name it DVDs-by-mail. The opportunity for Netflix online arrives when we can deliver content to the TV without any intermediary device.”

When Netflix first started streaming, the content came from third-party producers. In 2013, the company launched its first slate of original programming. Since then, the company has ramped up its original content budget significantly. 

The table below shows Netflix’s total content cash spending from 2014 to 2018. There are two things to note. First, total content spending has been increasing each year and has jumped by around 340% for the entire time frame. Second, around 85%, or US$11 billion, of Netflix’s content spending in 2018 was for original content. Netflix’s content budget for 2019 is projected to be around US$15 billion, most of which is again for original content.

All that content-spending has resulted in strong subscriber growth, which is clearly seen from the table below. Netflix’s decade-plus head start in streaming – a move that I credit management for – has also given the company a tremendously valuable asset: Data. The data lets Netflix know what people are watching, and in turn allows the company to predict what people want to watch next. This is very helpful for Netflix when producing original content that keeps viewers hooked. 

And Netflix has indeed found plenty of success with its original programming. For instance, in 2013, the company became the first streaming provider to be nominated for a primetime Emmy. In 2018 and 2019, the company snagged 23 and 27 Emmy wins, respectively. From a viewership perspective, the third season of Stranger Things (I love the show!), launched in the third quarter of 2019, had 64 million households tuning in within the first month of its release. Adam Sandler’s comedy film, Murder Mystery, welcomed views from over 73 million households in the first month of its release in June this year.  

The move into originals by management has also proved to be prescient. Netflix’s 2019 second quarter shareholders’ letter name-dropped nine existing and would-be streaming competitors – and there are more that are unnamed. I think Netflix’s aforementioned data, and its strong library of original content, should help it to withstand competition.   

I also want to point out the unique view on Netflix’s market opportunity that management has. Management sees Netflix’s competition as more than just other streaming providers. In Netflix’s Long-Term View letter to investors, management wrote:

“We compete for a share of members’ time and spending for relaxation and stimulation, against linear networks, pay-per-view content, DVD watching, other internet networks, video gaming, web browsing, magazine reading, video piracy, and much more. Over the coming years, most of these forms of entertainment will improve.

If you think of your own behavior any evening or weekend in the last month when you did not watch Netflix, you will understand how broad and vigorous our competition is.

We strive to win more of our members’ “moments of truth”.”

Having an expansive view on competition lessens the risk that Netflix will get blindsided by competitors, in my view.

4. Revenue streams that are recurring in nature, either through contracts or customor-behaviour

Netflix’s business is built entirely on subscriptions, which generate recurring revenue for the company. As I already mentioned, nearly all of Netflix’s revenue in the first nine months of 2019 (98%) came from subscriptions to its streaming service, while subscriptions to the DVD-by-mail service accounted for the remaining small chunk of revenue.

But just having a subscription model does not equate to having recurring revenues. If your business has a high churn rate (the rate of customers leaving), you’re constantly filling a leaky bucket. That’s not recurring income. According to a recent estimate from a third-party source (Lab42), Netflix’s churn rate is just 7%, and is much better than its competitors.

5. A proven ability to grow

2007 was the year Netflix first launched its streaming service. This has provided the impetus for the company’s stunning revenue and net income growth since, as the table below illustrates. It’s good to note too that Netflix’s diluted share count has actually declined since 2007. 

In my explanation of this criterion, I mentioned that I’m looking for “big jumps in revenue, net profit, and free cash flow over time.” I also said that “I am generally wary of companies that (a) produce revenue and profit growth without corresponding increases in free cash flow.” So why am I holding Netflix shares when its free cash flow has cratered over time and is deeply in red at the moment? 

This is my view on the situation. Netflix has been growing its original content production, as mentioned earlier, and the high capital outlay for such content is mostly paid upfront. But the high upfront costs are for the production of content that (1) could have a long lifespan, (2) can be delivered to subscribers at minimal cost, and (3) could satisfy subscribers who have high lifetime value (the high lifetime value is inferred from Netflix’s low churn rate). In other words, Netflix is spending upfront for content, but has the potential to reap outsized rewards over a long period of time at low cost. The shelf-life for good content could be decades, or more – for instance, Seinfeld, a sitcom in the US, is still popular 30 years after it was produced. 

In Netflix’s Long-Term View shareholder’s letter, management wrote (emphases are mine):

“People love movies and TV shows, but they don’t love the linear TV experience, where channels present programs only at particular times on non-portable screens with complicated remote controls. Now streaming entertainment – which is on-demand, personalized, and available on any screen – is replacing linear TV.

Changes of this magnitude are rare. Radio was the dominant home entertainment media for nearly 50 years until linear TV took over in the 1950’s and 1960’s. Linear video in the home was a huge advance over radio, and very large firms emerged to meet consumer desires over the last 60 years. The new era of streaming entertainment, which began in the mid-2000’s, is likely to be very big and enduring also, given the flexibility and ubiquity of the internet around the world. We hope to continue being one of the leading firms of the streaming entertainment era.”

I agree with Netflix’s management that the company is in the early stages of a multi-decade transition from linear TV to internet entertainment at a global scale. With this backdrop, along with what I mentioned earlier on Netflix’s business model of spending upfront to produce content with long monetisable-lifespans, I’m not troubled by Netflix’s negative and deteriorating free cash flow for now. Netflix’s management also expects free cash flow to improve in 2020 compared to 2019, and “to continue to improve annually beyond 2020.”

6. A high likelihood of generating a strong and growing stream of free cash flow in the future

I understand that Netflix’s free cash flow numbers look horrible at the moment. But Netflix is a subscription business that enjoys a low churn rate. It is also spending plenty of capital to pay upfront for long-lived assets (the original content). I believe that these provide the potential for Netflix to generate high free cash flow in the future, if it continues to grow its subscriber base.

Valuation

“Cheap” is definitely not a good way to describe Netflix’s shares. The company has trailing earnings per share of US$3.12 against a share price north of US$300. That’s a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of around 100. But Netflix has the tailwinds of expanding margins and revenue growth. The company is currently on track to achieve its goal of an operating margin of 13% in 2019, up from just 4% in 2016. It is targeting an operating margin of 16% in 2020. 

Let’s assume that in five years’ time, Netflix can hit 300 million subscribers worldwide paying US$12 per month on average. The lowest-tier plan in the US is currently US$9 per month, and Netflix has managed to grow its average revenue per user at a healthy clip, as shown in the table below. 

With the assumptions above, Netflix’s revenue in five years would be US$43 billion. If we apply a 20% net profit margin, the company would then earn US$8.6 billion in net profit. With an earnings multiple of just 30, Netflix’s market capitalisation in five years would be US$258 billion, nearly double from the current market capitalisation of US$134 billion. This equates to an annualised return of 14%. I think my assumptions are conservative. Higher subscriber numbers, higher average revenue per user, and fatter margins will lead to much higher upside.

The risks involved

There are three key risks that I see in Netflix. 

First, Netflix’s cash burn and weak balance sheet is a big risk. I think Netflix’s strategy to produce original content is sound. But the strategy necessitates the spending of capital upfront, which has led to debt piling up on the balance sheet. I will be watching Netflix’s free cash flow and borrowing terms. For now, Netflix depends on the kindness of the debt markets – that’s a situation the company should be getting itself out of as soon as possible.

Second, there’s competition. Tech giant Apple and entertainment heavyweight Disney recently launched their streaming offerings, and the space is getting more crowded as we speak. As I mentioned earlier, I think Netflix should be able to withstand competition. In fact, I think the real victims will be cable TV companies. This is not a case of Netflix versus other streaming options – this is a case of streaming services versus cable. Different streaming services can co-exist and thrive. And even if the streaming market has a shakeout, Netflix, by virtue of its already massive subscriber base, should be one of the victors. But I can’t know for sure. Only time will tell. Netflix’s subscriber numbers in the future will show us how it’s dealing with competition.

Third, there’s key-man risk. Reed Hastings has been a phenomenal leader at Netflix, but he’s not the only important member of the management team. Ted Sarandos, 54, Netflix’s Chief Content Officer, is also a vital figure. He has been leading Netflix’s content team since 2000, and was a driving force in Netflix’s transition into original content production that started in 2013. If Hastings and/or Sarandos were to leave Netflix for whatever reason, I’ll be concerned.

The Good Investors’ conclusion 

Despite already having more than 158 million subscribers worldwide, Netflix still has a large market opportunity to conquer. The company also has an excellent management team with integrity, and has an attractive subscription business model with sticky customers. Although Netflix’s balance sheet is currently weak and it has trouble generating free cash flow, I think the company will be able to generate strong free cash flow in the future.

There are certainly risks to note, such as a high debt-burden, high cash-burn, and an increasingly competitive landscape. Key-man departures, if they happen, could also significantly dent Netflix’s growth prospects. 

But in weighing the risks and rewards, I think the odds are in my favour. 

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life.

I participate in Seedly’s community forums by answering investing-related questions. Recently, there was a question along the lines of “What should I do with my Sembcorp Marine shares that are in the red?” I thought my answer is worth sharing with a wider audience. It is reproduced below (with slight tweaks made for readability).

—

Hello! The price you had initially purchased Sembcorp Marine’s shares at is irrelevant in deciding whether you should hold or sell the shares now.

When it comes to any stock, we should constantly be assessing what its future business prospects look like and compare it to the current stock price. At any point in time, if you realise that the current stock price reflects a bright future whereas the actual future business prospects look relatively dimmer to you, then that’s a good time to sell.

I wish I could give you a holistic framework to assess the future prospects of Sembcorp Marine. But I don’t have one. Right now, the company’s revenue depends heavily on the level of oil prices. I don’t have any skill in determining how a commodity’s price will move in the future, so I’ve largely stayed away from stocks whose revenues rely on commodity prices. 

When you make your decision about what to do with your Sembcorp Marine shares, you’ll have to make a judgement on how the company’s business will fare five to 10 years from now. This judgement will in turn depend on your views on how the price of oil changes in that timeframe.

There’s another wrinkle to the equation. Sometimes a stock’s price can still fall even when there’s a positive macro-economic change. In the case of the oil & gas industry, a company’s stock price could still decline despite rising oil prices, if said company’s balance sheet is very weak and it has significant trouble in generating positive free cash flow. 

Right now (as of 30 September 2019), Sembcorp Marine’s balance sheet holds S$468 million in cash, but S$4.15 billion in total debt. These numbers give rise to net-debt (total debt minus cash) of S$3.68 billion, which is significantly higher than the company’s shareholders’ equity of $2.25 billion. In fact, the net-debt to shareholders’ equity ratio of 164% is uncomfortably high in my view. 

If I look at data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Sembcorp Marine’s free cash flow has also been negative in every year from 2014 to 2018, with the exception of 2016. There has been no improvement detected so far in 2019. The first nine months of this year saw the company produce negative operating cash flow and free cash flow of S$17 million and S$290 million, respectively.

A weak balance sheet and inability to generate free cash flow could be a toxic combination for a company. That’s because the company’s lenders may be concerned with the situation and demand even tougher borrowing terms in the future. This starts a vicious cycle of pricier debt leading to an even weaker ability to service and repay borrowings, resulting in even pricier debt.

Sembcorp Marine is fortunate because it has the backing of Sembcorp Industries (Sembcorp Industries owns the majority of Sembcorp Marine’s shares), which has the relatively more stable utilities business to act as a buffer. It’s worth noting too that Temasek Holdings, one of our local government’s investment arms, is a major shareholder of Sembcorp Industries. But it’s anybody’s guess as to how much support Sembcorp Industries is ultimately willing to provide Sembcorp Marine.

I hope what I’ve shared can give you useful context in making a decision with your Sembcorp Marine shares. 

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life.

Portfolio management is an important skill in investing. Take on too much risk and you may be left with sizeable losses. Take on too little risk and your returns will be mediocre. 

So how do we balance risk and returns? 

Given the uncertainty surrounding the market today, I thought it would be an opportune time to share some portfolio management tips that I believe investors can adopt.

Mind the size

Whatever you invest in, it is important to invest an amount that you are comfortable with. 

Of course, this can vary depending on the size of your portfolio, your investment strategy, investment horizon, and even your risk appetite.

For stock investors, I encourage you to invest no more than 5% of your entire portfolio capital in a single stock. This reduces the risk that a sudden drop in price in the stock will have a detrimental impact on your returns.

It is not uncommon to find stocks fall more than 30% and never recover. Sometimes it may not be the fault of the investor. Unforeseen circumstances can cause a sudden and irrecoverable disruption to a company’s previously sound business.

We can avoid potentially painful losses when we sufficiently diversify our investments.

Manage the risk

Adding to the first point, it is important to assess the risk-reward profile of a particular investment. For an investment such as a high-growth stock that has a high-risk but high-return possibility, it may be wise to size down your investment to reduce the chance that a permanent fall in the price of the stock will cause a large loss to your portfolio.

Keep cash in hand

Although not all portfolio managers may agree, I prefer to keep some cash in hand. The cash will come in handy when a bargain suddenly appears in the market.

To ensure that I have the means to take advantage of an investment opportunity, I hold 5% of my total investment capital as cash.

There are, however, exceptions to this rule. If stocks have seen a market-wide decline, presenting plenty of investment opportunities, it may be wise to be fully invested to make the most of these bargains.

Portfolio Management Simplified

Obviously there is no one-size-fits-all strategy to invest well. Investors need some investing experience to personalise their own portfolio management according to their goals and needs. However, these three strategies can act as a framework for how to manage an investment portfolio.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life.

At the end of October 2019, I left The Motley Fool Singapore after nearly seven joyful years when the company ceased operations. 

In May 2016, The Motley Fool Singapore launched its flagship investment newsletter, Stock Advisor Gold. I’m proud to say that as of 31 October 2019, Stock Advisor Gold had produced a return of 30.6% since the introduction of its first-ever recommendation on 20 May 2016. In comparison, the service’s benchmark, the S&P Global Broad Market Index – a measure for global stocks – had produced a gain of just 16.4% in the same period.

My ex-colleagues in Fool SG’s investing team and I essentially doubled the global stock market in around 3.5 years. I was there every step of the way, leading investing discussions, finding opportunities, dissecting the ideas, maintaining coverage on active recommendations, and more. Here’s how we did it.

The product

A description of Stock Advisor Gold helps set the stage for discussing the winning investing process.

Stock Advisor Gold gave one Singapore stock recommendation and one International stock recommendation every single month. It did so since its inception, come rain or shine. In all, we made 82 recommendations in Stock Advisor Gold.

The 30.6% return mentioned earlier is the simple average of the returns of all the recommended stocks in Stock Advisor Gold, and it includes dividends. Each time we make a recommendation, we also track the performance of the S&P Global BMI (again including dividends) – so the 16.4% performance number refers to the average return someone could theoretically earn if she bought the S&P Global BMI each time Stock Advisor Gold recommended a stock instead of buying the recommended pick.

Stock Advisor Gold’s recommendations typically had an investment time horizon of three years or longer. We were long-term investors.

3 lessons from our investment process

I see three key factors that contributed to our success.

#1 Flexibility

We were flexible in our investment thinking. I believe that investment consultants who try to style-box Stock Advisor Gold will be flummoxed. We had all kinds of stock recommendations in the service. 

There was a special-situation: We judged that a transport operator had transformed from a capital-intensive business with no ability to match revenue with its costs into a capital-light cash-flow generating business that is now able to earn contracted revenues that are effectively on a cost-plus model. We had companies that own properties as their main business that are priced at massive discounts to the true market values of their real estate; and these companies came from both ends of the market-capitalisation spectrum. We had small-cap stocks with low valuations that are riding on the volatile but steadily-climbing growth of the world’s appetite for semiconductors and rubber gloves. We had large-cap stocks with high valuation multiples but solid profits and cash flows that are leading the way on trends with tremendous global growth opportunities, such as robotic surgery, DNA analysis, online travel, and more. We had small-cap Software-as-a-Service stocks that were loss-making and burning cash but that are building tremendously sticky and soon-to-be profitable customer bases. 

I see our ability to find investment ideas from so many different corners of the market as a strength because it widened our opportunity-set tremendously. It also allowed us to develop a more expansive worldview, which sharpened our investment thinking. 

#2 A focus on what matters

At Stock Advisor Gold, we glanced at macro-economics only occasionally – we had a laser-focus on business fundamentals. It was a company’s long-term business prospects in relation to its current stock price that guided our thinking on whether it was an attractive investment opportunity or not.

Let’s look at Netflix as an example (it was not a recommendation in Stock Advisor Gold). The trade war between the US and China has been and continues to be one of the biggest stories in the financial world. But will the squabbles between the two giant economies really quench the public’s appetite for high-quality video programmes that are available 24/7 for a low monthly fee? Will a trade war dampen Netflix’s desire to constantly improve the quality of its programming and streaming capabilities? I don’t think so. And it’s those two factors that really matter for the prospects of the company’s business.

Besides, the gap between a macroeconomic event and the movement of a company’s stock price can be a mile wide. For example, from 30 September 2005 to 15 September 2015, the per-ounce price of gold in Australia had grown by nearly 10% annually from A$621 to around A$1,550. But an index for Australian gold-mining stocks, the S&P / ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index, lost 4% per year in the same period, falling from 3,372 points to 2,245. In another example, despite stunning 15% annual GDP growth in China from 1992 to 2013, Chinese stocks actually fell by 2% per year; Mexico on the other hand, saw its stock market produce an annual gain of 18%, despite its economy growing at a pedestrian rate of just 2% per year.

#3 Being clear on the limits of our knowledge

We strived to be clear on what we did not know, and invested accordingly. We had no idea how commodity prices will move, so in Stock Advisor Gold, we stayed away from companies that we judged to be heavily dependent on commodity price movements for their revenues. We weren’t sure how interest rates would move, so we did not make any investment decisions that depended heavily on the movement of interest rates in certain directions.

Put another way, we aimed to be crystal clear on the limits of our knowledge, and we made sure we never overstepped the boundary. We had safeguarded ourselves against overconfidence.

Conclusion

In investing, the process is even more important than the results. That’s because results can be affected by luck. A bad break could momentarily cause a good process to produce poor results, but over time, the process will prevail. I’m glad that Stock Advisor Gold achieved excellent results with what I deem to be a sound process. I hope all of you who have read this article are able to take away something useful to improve your own investing process.  
And if you happen to be an ex-member of Stock Advisor Gold or The Motley Fool Singapore, I thank you for your trust and your continued interest in following my investing thoughts.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life.