A company’s intrinsic value is the value of the sum of future cash flows to the shareholder discounted to the present day.
But the intrinsic value of a company is not static. It moves with time. The closer we get to the future cash flows, the more an investor should be willing to pay for the company.
In this article, I will run through (1) how to compute the intrinsic value of a company today, (2) how to plot the graph of the intrinsic value, and (3) what to do with intrinsic value charts.
How to calculate intrinsic value
Simply put, intrinsic value is the sum of all future cash flows discounted to the present.
As shareholders of a company, the future cash flow is all future dividends and the proceeds we can collect when we eventually sell our shares in the company.
To keep things simple, we should assume that we are holding a company to perpetuity or till the business closes down. This will ensure we are not beholden to market conditions that influence our future cash flows through a sale. We, hence, only need to concern ourselves with future dividends.
To calculate intrinsic value, we need to predict the amount of dividends we will collect and the timing of that dividend.
Once we figure that out, we can discount the dividends to the present day.
Let’s take a simple company that will pay $1 a share for 10 years before closing down. Upon closing, the company pays a $5 dividend on liquidation. Let’s assume we want a 10% return. The table below shows the dividend schedule, the value of each dividend when discounted to the present day and the total intrinsic value of the company now.
| Year | Dividend | Net present value |
| Now | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Year 1 | $1.00 | $0.91 |
| Year 2 | $1.00 | $0.83 |
| Year 3 | $1.00 | $0.75 |
| Year 4 | $1.00 | $0.68 |
| Year 5 | $1.00 | $0.62 |
| Year 6 | $1.00 | $0.56 |
| Year 7 | $1.00 | $0.51 |
| Year 8 | $1.00 | $0.47 |
| Year 9 | $1.00 | $0.42 |
| Year 10 | $6.00 | $2.31 |
| Sum | $15.00 | $8.07 |
As you can see, we have calculated the net present value of each dividend based on how far in the future we will receive them. The equation for the net present value is: (Dividend/(1+10%)^(Years away).
The intrinsic value is the sum of the net present value of all the dividends. The company in this situation has an intrinsic value of $8.07.
Intrinsic value moves
In the above example, we have calculated the intrinsic value of the stock today. But the intrinsic value moves with time. In a year, we will have collected $1 in dividends which will lower our intrinsic value. But at the same time, we will be closer to receiving subsequent dividends.
The table below shows the intrinsic value immediately after collecting our first dividend in year 1.
| Year | Dividend | Net present value |
| Now | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Year 1 | $1.00 | $0.91 |
| Year 2 | $1.00 | $0.83 |
| Year 3 | $1.00 | $0.75 |
| Year 4 | $1.00 | $0.68 |
| Year 5 | $1.00 | $0.62 |
| Year 6 | $1.00 | $0.56 |
| Year 7 | $1.00 | $0.51 |
| Year 8 | $1.00 | $0.47 |
| Year 9 | $6.00 | $2.54 |
| Sum | $14.00 | $7.88 |
There are a few things to take note of.
First, the sum of the remaining dividends left to be paid has dropped to $14 (from $15) as we have already collected $1 worth of dividends.
Second, the intrinsic value has now dropped to $7.88.
We see that there are two main effects of time.
It allowed us to collect our first dividend payment of $1, reducing future dividends. That has a net negative impact on the remaining intrinsic value of the stock. But we are also now closer to receiving future dividends. For instance, the big payout after year 10 previously is now just 9 years away.
The net effect is that the intrinsic value dropped to $7.88. We can do the same exercise over and over to see the intrinsic value of the stock over time. We can also plot the intrinsic values of the company over time.
Notice that while intrinsic value has dropped, investors still manage to get a rate of return of 10% due to the dividends collected.
When a stock doesn’t pay a dividend for years
Often times a company may not pay a dividend for years. Think of Berkshire Hathaway, which has not paid a dividend in decades.
The intrinsic value of Berkshire is still moving with time as we get closer to the dividend payment. In this scenario, the intrinsic value simply rises as we get closer to our dividend collection and there is no net reduction in intrinsic values through any payment of dividends yet.
Take for example a company that will not pay a dividend for 10 years. After which, it begins to distribute a $1 per share dividend for the next 10 years before closing down and pays $5 a share in liquidation value.
| Year | Dividend | Net present value |
| Now | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 1 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 2 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 3 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 4 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 5 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 6 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 7 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 8 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 9 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Year 10 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Year 11 | $1.00 | $0.35 |
| Year 12 | $1.00 | $0.32 |
| Year 13 | $1.00 | $0.29 |
| Year 14 | $1.00 | $0.26 |
| Year 15 | $1.00 | $0.24 |
| Year 16 | $1.00 | $0.22 |
| Year 17 | $1.00 | $0.20 |
| Year 18 | $1.00 | $0.18 |
| Year 19 | $1.00 | $0.16 |
| Year 20 | $6.00 | $0.89 |
| Sum | $15.00 | $3.11 |
The intrinsic value of such a stock is around $3.11 at present. But in a year’s time, as we get closer to future dividend payouts, the intrinsic value will rise.
A simple way of thinking about it is that in a year’s time, the intrinsic value will have risen 10% to meet our 10% discount rate or required rate of return. As such, the intrinsic value will be $3.42 in one year. The intrinsic value will continue to rise 10% each year until we receive our first dividend payment in year 10.
The intrinsic value curve will look like this for the first 10 years:
The intrinsic value is a smooth curve for stocks that do not yet pay a dividend.
Using intrinsic value charts
Intrinsic value charts can be useful in helping investors know whether a stock is under or overvalued based on your required rate of return.
Andrew Brenton, CEO of Turtle Creek Asset Management whose main fund has produced a 20% annualised return since 1998 (as of December 2022), uses his estimate of intrinsic values to make portfolio adjustments.
If a stock goes above his intrinsic value, it means that it will not be able to earn his required rate of return. In that case, he lowers his portfolio weighting of the stock and vice versa.
While active management of the portfolio using this method can be rewarding as in the case of Turtle Creek, it is also fairly time-consuming.
Another way to use intrinsic value charts is to use it to ensure you are getting a good entry price for your stock. If a stock trades at a price above your intrinsic value calculations, it may not be able to achieve your desired rate of return.
Final thoughts
Calculating the intrinsic value of a company can help investors achieve their return goals and ensure that they maintain discipline when investing in a company.
However, there are limitations.
For one, intrinsic value calculations require an accurate projection of future payments to the shareholder. In many cases, it is hard for investors to predict with accuracy and confidence. We have to simply rely on our best judgement.
We are also often limited by the fact that we may not hold stock to perpetuity or its natural end of life and liquidation. In the case that we need to sell the stock prematurely, we may be beholden to market conditions at the time of our sale of the stock.
It is also important to note that intrinsic value is not the same for everyone. I may be willing to attribute a higher intrinsic value to a company if my required rate of return is lower than yours. So each individual investor has to set his own target return to calculate intrinsic value.
Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I do not have a vested interest in any stocks mentioned. Holdings are subject to change at any time.
Is there a website where I can get the intrinsic value chart plotted against current stock price?
Thanks
Hi KC,
Not sure if there is any around but I think each analyst will also come up with different intrinsic values for a company based on different assumptions and required rate of returns.