Is Zoom’s Stock Too Expensive Now?

While stocks markets around the world plunged over the last month, Zoom Video Communications‘s (NASDAQ: ZM) share price has defied gravity, zooming up by close to 30%.

Investors are anticipating great things for the company this year as the COVID-19 epidemic accelerates the adoption of video conferencing tools around the globe.

With the hype surrounding Zoom, I thought it would be an opportune time to share some of my thoughts on the fast-growing company and whether it is still worth investing at today’s price.

Fast growth

Zoom is one of the fastest-growing listed software-as-a-service firms in the world today. That says a lot.

In fiscal 2020 (ended 31 January), Zoom recorded revenue of US$622.7 million, up a staggering 88% from a year ago.

New customers and a net dollar expansion rate of more than 130% contributed to the sharp rise in sales. Over the course of 2019, Zoom had 641 customers contributing more than US$100,000 in trailing-12-months revenue, an increase of 86% from a year ago. 

Consistently strong performance

Last year’s growth was by no account a one-off. Zoom has been growing rapidly for the three years prior to its IPO in 2019. Annual revenue increased by 149% and 118% in fiscal 2018 and fiscal 2019, respectively.

The company’s net dollar expansion rate has also been north of 130% for seven consecutive quarters, a testament to the strength of the business platform.

COVID-19, a catalyst for greater use of Zoom’s tools

On top of the long-term tailwinds for video conferencing, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of Zoom’s video conferencing tools. Many people – from university students to work-at-home employees – have begun using Zoom’s software as they take shelter at home.

My sister who has returned home from Australia during this COVID-19 outbreak is using Zoom’s software for “long-distance” tutorials. Fortune magazine reported that teachers are even conducting piano lessons through Zoom.

Huge addressable market

Video is increasingly becoming the way that individuals communicate with each other at work and in their daily lives. And Zoom is the market leader in the space.

Zoom addresses the Hosted/Cloud Voice and Unified Communications, Collaboration Application, and IP Telephony Lines segments within the communication and collaboration market. Market researcher International Data Corporation estimates that these segments would be worth US$43.1 billion by 2022.

Remember that Zoom’s trailing-12-months revenue is just US$622.7 million. That’s a mere 1.4% of the addressable market, so there’s plenty of room for Zoom to grow into.

A cash-generating business

Unlike some of the other fast-growing SaaS (software-as-a-service) companies, Zoom is already cash-flow positive. In fiscal 2020, Zoom generated US$151.9 million and US$113.8 million in operating cash flow and free cash flow, respectively. That translates to a healthy free cash flow margin of 18.3%, with room for further margin expansion as usage of Zoom’s services grows.

In addition, even after accounting for stock-based compensation, Zoom is still profitable, with GAAP (generally-accepted accounting principles) net income of US$21.7 million in fiscal 2020, or US$0.09 per share.

Zoom’s high gross margin of more than 80% enables it to spend a large chunk of its revenue to acquire customers and grow the business while still sustaining a decent free cash flow margin and squeeze out some GAAP profit.

A robust balance sheet

A time when many businesses are being momentarily put on hold due to the COVID-19 spread highlights the importance of a company with a strong balance sheet. Companies that have enough cash to pay off their fixed costs during pauses in sales are more resilient to economic hardships.

Although Zoom is thriving in the current COVID-19 situation, there could be other incidents that may cause temporary disruptions to its business. It is hence heartening to note that Zoom has a robust balance sheet.

As of 31 January 2020, the video conferencing software company had US$283 million in cash and no debt. In fact, Zoom has been so adept at generating cash flow that it said that much of the primary capital it had raised prior to its IPO was still on its balance sheet.

Competition threat

Competition is perhaps the biggest threat to Zoom. The video conferencing company faces competition from mega tech firms such as Google, which has the free Google Hangout video conferencing service. Facebook and Amazon have also spent heavily on video communication tools.

However, Zoom’s video-first focus has propelled it to become the market leader in the video conferencing space. Unlike other companies that added video tools to their legacy communication software, Zoom built a video-conferencing tool with video at the front and centre of its architecture. This focus gives Zoom users a better video conferencing experience.

For now, Zoom remains the forefront in this space with most users preferring its software over competitors but it must consistently add features and update its software to keep users on its platform.

But is it too expensive?

There is no doubt that Zoom has all the makings of a great company. The software-as-a-service firm is growing rapidly and already boasts free cash flow margins in the mid-teens range.

I foresee Zoom’s free cash flow growing much faster than revenue in the future as margins expand due to economies of scale. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating the adoption of video conferencing software, which is great news for Zoom, being the market leader in this space.

Having said all that, Zoom’s stock has skyrocketed well above what I believe is reasonable. Zoom, which is still run by founder Eric Yuan, has a market cap of around US$38 billion currently.

That’s an astonishing 62 times fiscal 2020 revenue. Even if Zoom’s profit margin was 40% today (a level I think it can achieve in the future), its current market cap would still translate to 176 times earnings.

My conclusion

Based on its share price, the market is anticipating big things for Zoom in the coming quarters as more companies are forced to adopt video conferencing software. On top of that, Zoom, even before the COVID-19 outbreak, was already successfully riding on the coattails of a rapidly growing industry.

As an investor, I would love to participate in Zoom’s growth. However, I think Zoom’s stock is priced for perfection at the moment. Even if Zoom can deliver on all fronts over a multi-year time frame, investors who buy in at this price may still only achieve mediocre returns due to its high valuation.

As such, even though I wish I could be a shareholder of Zoom, I’ll happily wait at the sidelines until a more reasonable entry point arises.

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