Earlier this week, on 12 December 2023, I was invited for a short interview on Money FM 89.3, Singapore’s first business and personal finance radio station. My friend Willie Keng, the founder of investor education website Dividend Titan, was hosting a segment for the radio show and we talked about a few topics concerning the US stock market:
- Context on the US stock market’s strong performance so far in 2023 (Hint: Investors should not be surprised by the 20%-plus year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 because the index has historically been more likely to produce a gain of 20% or more in a calendar year than to experience a loss)
- The impact on US stocks from a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Hint: US stocks have historically tended to fall over a 1-year period after interest rate cuts, but it’s hard to say if a similar decline will happen again if the Fed does cut rates in 2024, since how stocks react will also depend on the reason for any interest rate cuts)
- The risks of investing in the US stock market right now (Hint: The world we live in today is no less risky compared to yesterday, or a month ago, or a year ago, or even 10 years ago – the only thing that changes is our perception on the level and the types of risk that the world is facing. Instead of thinking about specific risks, it’s far more important to introduce elements of anti-fragility into our portfolios)
- The opportunities I see in US stocks (Hint: Meta Platforms has overcome the key problems that were plaguing its business over the past year, and currently has an undemanding valuation)
You can check out the recording of our conversation below!
Notes (where my data on US market history was sourced from):
- The Motley Fool
- Ben Carlson: Here and here
- Nick Maggiulli
Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Meta Platforms. Holdings are subject to change at any time.