We’ve constantly been sharing a list of our recent reads in our weekly emails for The Good Investors.
Do subscribe for our weekly updates through the orange box in the blog (it’s on the side if you’re using a computer, and all the way at the bottom if you’re using mobile) – it’s free!
But since our readership-audience for The Good Investors is wider than our subscriber base, we think sharing the reading list regularly on the blog itself can benefit even more people. The articles we share touch on a wide range of topics, including investing, business, and the world in general.
Here are the articles for the week ending 23 March 2025:
1. Investing Politics: Globalization Backlash and Government Disruption! – Aswath Damodaran
Globalization has taken different forms through the ages, with some violent and toxic variants, but the current version of globalization kicked into high gear in the 1980s, transforming every aspect of our lives…
…The biggest winner from globalization has been China, which has seen its economic and political power surge over the last four decades. Note that the rise has not been all happenstance, and China deserves credit for taking advantage of the opportunities offered by globalization, making itself first the hub for global manufacturing and then using its increasing wealth to build its infrastructure and institutions…
…China’s share of global GDP increased ten-fold between 1980 and 2023…
…Between 2010 and 2023, China accounted for almost 38% of global economic growth, with only the United States having a larger share…
…Consumers have benefited from globalization in many ways, starting with more products to choose from and often at lower prices than in pre-globalization days. From being able to eat whatever we want to, anytime of the year, to wearing apparel that has become so cheap that it has become disposable, many of us, at least on the surface, have more buying power…
…Over the last few decades, not only have more companies been able to list themselves on financial markets, but these markets has become more central to public policy. In many cases, the market reaction to spending, tax or economic proposals has become the determinant on whether they get adopted or continued. As financial markets have risen in value and importance, the cities (New York, London, Frankfurt, Shanghai, Tokyo and Mumbai) where these markets are centered have gained in importance and wealth, if not in livability, at the expense of the rest of the world…
…The rise of China from globalization also illustrates the fading of Japan and Europe over the period, with the former declining from 17.8% of global GDP in 1995 to 3.96% in 2023 and the latter seeing its share dropping from 25.69% of global GDP in 1990 to 14.86%…
…I listed consumers as winners from globalization, and they were, on the dimensions of choice and cost, but they also lost in terms of control of where their products were made, and by whom. To provide a simplistic example, the shift from buying your vegetables, fish and meat from local farmers, fishermen and butchers to factory farmers and supermarkets may have made the food more affordable, but it has come at a cost…
…While there are a host of other factors that have also contributed to the decline of small businesses, globalization has been a major contributor, as smaller businesses now find themselves competing against companies who make their products thousands of miles away, often with very different cost structures and rules restricting them. Larger businesses not only had more power to adapt to the challenges of globalization, but have found ways to benefit from it, by moving their production to the cheapest and least restrictive locales. In one of my data updates for this year, I pointed to the disappearance of the small firm effect, where small firms historically have earned higher returns than large cap companies, and globalization is a contributing factor…
…The flip side of the rise of China and other countries as manufacturing hubs, with lower costs of operation, has been the loss of manufacturing clout and jobs for the West…
…In the United States, the number of manufacturing jobs peaked at close to 20 million in 1979 and dropped to about 13 million in 2024, and manufacturing wages have lagged wage growth in other sectors for much of that period…
…I believe that globalization has been a net plus for the global economy, but one reason it is in retreat is because of a refusal on the part of its advocates to acknowledge its costs and the dismissal of opposition to any aspect of globalization as nativist and ignorant…
…Trump, a real estate developer with multiple international properties, is an imperfect spokesperson of the anti-globalization movement, but it is undeniable that he has tapped into, and benefited from, its anger. While he was restrained by norms and tradition in his first term, those constraints seem to have loosened in this second go around, and he has wielded tariffs as a weapon and is open about his contempt for global organizations. While economists are aghast at the spectacle, and the economic consequences are likely to be damaging, it is not surprising that a portion of the public, perhaps even a majority, are cheering Trump on.
To those who are nostalgic for a return to the old times, I don’t believe that the globalization genie can go back into the bottle, as it has permeated not only every aspect of business, but also significant portions of our personal lives. The world that will prevail, if a trade war plays out, will be very different than the one that existed before globalization took off…
…On the revenue growth front, companies that derive most or all of their revenues domestically will benefit and companies that are dependent on foreign sales will be hurt by tariff wars…
…Collectively, about 28% of the revenues, in 2023, of the companies in the S&P 500 came from foreign markets, but technology companies are most exposed (with 59% of revenues coming from outside the country) and utilities least exposed (just 2%) to foreign revenue exposure. It is also worth noting that the larger market cap companies of the S&P 500 have a higher foreign market revenue exposure than smaller market cap companies…
…To the extent that companies are altering their decisions on where to build their next manufacturing facilities, as a result of tariff fears or in hope of government largesse, there should be an effect on reinvestment, with an increase in reinvestment (lower sales to capital ratios) at businesses where this move will create investment costs. Looking across businesses, this effect is likely to be more intense at manufacturing companies, where moving production is more expensive and difficult to do, than at technology or service firms…
…While it is easy to blame market uncertainty on Trump, tariffs and trade wars for the moment, the truth is that the forces that have led us here have been building for years, both in our political and economic arenas. In short, even if the tariffs cease to be front page news, and the fears of an immediate trade war ease, the underlying forces of anti-globalization that gave rise to them will continue to play out in global commerce and markets. For investors, that will require a shift away from the large cap technology companies that have been the market leaders in the last two decades back to smaller cap companies with a more domestic focus.
2. Big Retailers’ Hardball Tariff Playbook: Haggle, Diversify, Raise Prices – Hannah Miao and Sarah Nassauer
Some suppliers say Walmart, Home Depot and other retailers are pushing a variation of the same demand: Make a price concession or shift production out of China. Otherwise, the suppliers risk losing some business…
…Some of the requests have raised the ire of Chinese officials. Authorities in China summoned Walmart for a meeting in recent days after some suppliers complained the largest U.S. retailer by annual revenue was pressuring them to cut prices and absorb the tariff cost…
…Some pricing negotiations are hitting an impasse because many of these manufacturers are often already operating on razor-thin margins, according to suppliers. And retailers don’t want to raise prices for shoppers so they can continue to compete for market share…
…After the first 10% tariff on Chinese goods in February, Home Depot asked one of its U.S. suppliers of lighting and home decor to absorb the cost, according to an executive at the supplier. The supplier agreed to a two-month, 10% discount, part of which would be covered by its Chinese manufacturer.
After the second 10% tariff in March, the supplier declined another request from Home Depot to lower prices again. Instead, the supplier is moving production to Southeast Asia so it can eventually charge the home-improvement retailer the original price, the executive said…
…The tariff planning is especially complicated because companies have little sense of which tariff threats will materialize and where new ones could emerge, retailers and suppliers say…
…In some cases, retailers and manufacturers have decided it is worth it to keep production in China to maintain quality. Costco, the warehouse chain, plans to continue selling patio furniture made in China—even at an elevated price—because it is higher quality than versions made in other countries, Costco executives said. Costco and its supplier will absorb some of the cost increase and pass some on to shoppers, they said.
3. An Interview with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman About Building a Consumer Tech Company – Ben Thompson and Sam Altman
What’s going to be more valuable in five years? A 1-billion daily active user destination site that doesn’t have to do customer acquisition, or the state-of-the-art model?
SA: The 1-billion user site I think.
Is that the case regardless, or is that augmented by the fact that it seems, at least at the GPT-4 level, I mean, I don’t know if you saw today LG just released a new model. There’s going to be a lot of, I don’t know, no comments about how good it is or not, but there’s a lot of state-of-the-art models.
SA: My favorite historical analog is the transistor for what AGI is going to be like. There’s going to be a lot of it, it’s going to diffuse into everything, it’s going to be cheap, it’s an emerging property of physics and it on its own will not be a differentiator.
What will be the differentiator?
SA: Where I think there’s strategic edges, there’s building the giant Internet company. I think that should be a combination of several different key services. There’s probably three or four things on the order of ChatGPT, and you’ll want to buy one bundled subscription of all of those. You’ll want to be able to sign in with your personal AI that’s gotten to know you over your life, over your years to other services and use it there. There will be, I think, amazing new kinds of devices that are optimized for how you use an AGI. There will be new kinds of web browsers, there’ll be that whole cluster, someone is just going to build the valuable products around AI. So that’s one thing.
There’s another thing, which is the inference stack, so how you make the cheapest, most abundant inference. Chips, data centers, energy, there’ll be some interesting financial engineering to do, there’s all of that.
And then the third thing is there will be just actually doing the best research and producing the best models. I think that is the triumvirate of value, but most models except the very, very leading edge, I think will commoditize pretty quickly.
So when Satya Nadella said models are getting commoditized, that OpenAI is a product company, that’s still a friendly statement, we’re still on the same team there?
SA: Yeah, I don’t know if it came across as a compliment to most listeners, I think he meant that as a compliment to us…
…It doesn’t. But to that point, you just released a big API update, including access to the same computer use model that undergirds Operator, a selling point for GPT Pro. You also released the Responses API and I thought the most interesting part about the Responses API is you’re saying, “Look, we think this is much better than the Chat Completions API, but of course we’ll maintain that, because lots of people have built on that”. It’s sort of become the industry standard, everyone copied your API. At what point is this API stuff and having to maintain old ones and pushing out your features to the new ones turn into a distraction and a waste of resources when you have a Facebook-level opportunity in front of you?
SA: I really believe in this product suite thing I was just saying. I think that if we execute really well, five years from now, we have a handful of multi-billion user products, small handful and then we have this idea that you sign in with your OpenAI account to anybody else that wants to integrate the API, and you can take your bundle of credits and your customized model and everything else anywhere you want to go. And I think that’s a key part of us really being a great platform.
Well, but this is the tension Facebook ran into. It’s hard to be a platform and an Aggregator, to use my terms. I think mobile was great for Facebook because it forced them to give up on pretensions of being a platform. You couldn’t be a platform, you had to just embrace being a content network with ads. And ads are just more content and it actually forced them into a better strategic position.
SA: I don’t think we’ll be a platform in a way that an operating system is a platform. But I think in the same way that Google is not really a platform, but people use sign in with Google and people take their Google stuff around the web and that’s part of the Google experience, I think we’ll be a platform in that way…
…From my perspective, when you talk about serving billions of users and being a consumer tech company. This means advertising. Do you disagree?
SA: I hope not. I’m not opposed. If there is a good reason to do it, I’m not dogmatic about this. But we have a great business selling subscriptions.
There’s still a long road to being profitable and making back all your money. And then the thing with advertising is it increases the breadth of your addressable market and increases the depth because you can increase your revenue per user and the advertiser foots the bill. You’re not running into any price elasticity issues, people just use it more.
SA: Currently, I am more excited to figure out how we can charge people a lot of money for a really great automated software engineer or other kind of agent than I am making some number of dimes with an advertising based model…
…Especially Deep Research, it’s amazing. But I am maybe more skeptical about people’s willingness to go out and pay for something, even if the math is obvious, even if it makes them that much more productive. And meanwhile, I look at this bit where you’re talking about building memory. Part of what made the Google advertising model so brilliant is they didn’t actually need to understand users that much because people typed into the search bar what they were looking for. People are typing a tremendous amount of things into your chatbot. And even if you served the dumbest advertising ever, in many respects, and even if you can’t track conversions, your targeting capability is going to be out of this world. And, by the way, you don’t have an existing business model to worry about undercutting. My sense is this is so counter to what everyone at OpenAI signed up for, that’s the biggest hurdle. But to me, from a business analyst, this seems super obvious and you’re already late.
SA: The kind of thing I’d be much more excited to try than traditional ads is a lot of people use Deep Research for e-commerce, for example, and is there a way that we could come up with some sort of new model, which is we’re never going to take money to change placement or whatever, but if you buy something through Deep Research that you found, we’re going to charge like a 2% affiliate fee or something. That would be cool, I’d have no problem with that. And maybe there’s a tasteful way we can do ads, but I don’t know. I kind of just don’t like ads that much…
…SA: Totally. I think DeepSeek was — they made a great team and they made a great model, but the model capability was, I think, not the thing there that really got them the viral moment. But it was a lesson for us about when we leave a feature hidden, we left chains of thought hidden, we had good reasons for doing it, but it does mean we leave space for somebody else to have a viral moment. And I think in that way it was a good wake-up call. And also, I don’t know, it convinced me to really think differently about what we put in the free tier and now the free tier is going to get GPT-5 and that’s cool.
Ooo, ChatGPT-5 hint. Well, I’ll ask you more about that later…
…In your recent proposal about the AI Action Plan, OpenAI expressed concern about companies building on DeepSeek’s models, which are, in one of the phrases about them, “freely available”. Isn’t the solution, if that’s a real concern, to make your models freely available?
SA: Yeah, I think we should do that.
So when-
SA: I don’t have a launch to announce, but directionally, I think we should do that.
You said before, the one billion destination site is more valuable than the model. Should that flow all the way through to your release strategy and your thoughts about open sourcing?
SA: Stay tuned.
Okay, I’ll stay tuned. Fair enough.
SA: I’m not front-running, but stay tuned…
…Is there a bit where isn’t hallucination good? You released a sample of a writing model, and it sort of tied into one of my longstanding takes that everyone is working really hard to make these probabilistic models behave like deterministic computing, and almost missing the magic, which is they’re actually making stuff up. That’s actually pretty incredible.
SA: 100%. If you want something deterministic, you should use a database. The cool thing here is that it can be creative and sometimes it doesn’t create quite the thing you wanted. And that’s okay, you click it again.
Is that an AI lab problem that they’re trying to do this? Or is that a user expectation problem? How can we get everyone to love hallucinations?
SA: Well, you want it to hallucinate when you want and not hallucinate when you don’t want. If you’re asking, “Tell me this fact about science,” you’d like that not to be a hallucination. If you’re like, “Write me a creative story,” you want some hallucination. And I think the problem, the interesting problem is how do you get models to hallucinate only when it benefits the user?…
…I think some skeptics, including me, have framed some aspects of your calls for regulation as an attempt to pull up the ladder on would-be competitors. I’d ask a two-part question. Number one, is that unfair? And if the AI Action Plan did nothing other than institute a ban on state level AI restrictions and declare that training on copyright materials fair use, would that be sufficient?
SA: First of all, most of the regulation that we’ve ever called for has been just say on the very frontier models, whatever is the leading edge in the world, have some standard of safety testing for those models. Now, I think that’s good policy, but I sort of increasingly think the world, most of the world does not think that’s good policy, and I’m worried about regulatory capture. So obviously, I have my own beliefs, but it doesn’t look to me like we’re going to get that as policy in the world and I think that’s a little bit scary, but hopefully, we’ll find our way through as best as we can and probably it’ll be fine. Not that many people want to destroy the world.
But for sure, you don’t want to go put regulatory burden on the entire tech industry. Like we were calling for something that would have hit us and Google and a tiny number of other people. And again, I don’t think the world’s going to go that way and we’ll play on the field in front of us. But yes, I think saying that fair use is fair use and that states are not going to have this crazy complex set of differing regulations, those would be very, very good.
You are supporting export controls or by you, I mean, OpenAI in this policy paper. You talked about the whole stack, that triumvirate. Do you worry about a world where the US is dependent on Taiwan and China is not?
SA: I am worried about the Taiwan dependency, yes…
…Okay, sure. Intel needs a customer. That’s what they need more than anything, a customer that is not Intel. Get OpenAI, become the leading customer for the Gaudi architecture, commit to buying a gazillion chips and that will help them. That will pull them through. There’s your answer.
SA: If we were making a chip with a partner that was working with Intel and a process that was compatible and we had, I think, a sufficiently high belief in their ability to deliver, we could do something like that. Again, I want to do something. So I’m not trying to dodge…
…So Dario and Kevin Weil, I think, have both said or in various aspects that 99% of code authorship will be automated by sort of end of the year, a very fast timeframe. What do you think that fraction is today? When do you think we’ll pass 50% or have we already?
SA: I think in many companies, it’s probably past 50% now. But the big thing I think will come with agentic coding, which no one’s doing for real yet.
What’s the hangup there?
SA: Oh, we just need a little longer.
Is it a product problem or is it a model problem?
SA: Model problem.
Should you still be hiring software engineers? I think you have a lot of job listings.
SA: I mean, my basic assumption is that each software engineer will just do much, much more for a while. And then at some point, yeah, maybe we do need less software engineers…
…What is AGI? And there’s a lot of definitions from you. There’s a lot of definitions in OpenAI. What is your current, what’s the state-of-the-art definition of AGI?
SA: I think what you just said is the key point, which is it’s a fuzzy boundary of a lot of stuff and it’s a term that I think has become almost completely devalued. Some people, by many people’s definition, we’d be there already, particularly if you could go like transport someone from 2020 to 2025 and show them what we’ve got.
Well, this was AI for many, many years. AI was always what we couldn’t do. As soon as we could do it, it’s machine learning. And as soon as you didn’t notice it, it was an algorithm.
SA: Right. I think for a lot of people, it’s something about like a fraction of the economic value. For a lot of people, it’s something about a general purpose thing. I think they can do a lot of things really well. For some people, it’s about something that doesn’t make any silly mistakes. For some people, it’s about something that’s capable of self-improvement, all those things. It’s just there’s not good alignment there.
What about an agent? What is an agent?
SA: Something that can like go autonomously, do a real chunk of work for you.
To me, that’s the AGI thing. That is employee replacement level.
SA: But what if it’s only good at like some class of tasks and can’t do others? I mean, some employees are like that too…
…Given that, does that make you more optimistic, less optimistic? Do you see this bifurcation that I think there’s going to be between agentic people? This is a different agentic word, but see where we’re going. We need to invent more words here. We’ll ask ChatGPT to hallucinate one for us. People who will go and use the API and the whole Microsoft Copilot idea is you have someone accompanying you and it’s a lot of high talk, “Oh, it’s not going to replace jobs, it’s going to make people more productive”. And I agree that will happen for some people who go out to use it. But you look back, say, at PC history. The first wave of PCs were people who really wanted to use PCs. PCs, a lot of people didn’t. They had one put on their desk and they had to use it for a specific task. And really, you needed a generational change for people to just default to using that. Is AI, is that the real limiting factor here?
SA: Maybe, but that’s okay. Like as you mentioned, that’s kind of standard for other tech evolutions.
But you go back to the PC example, actually, the first wave of IT was like the mainframe, wiped out whole back rooms. And because actually, it turned out the first wave is the job replacement wave because it’s just easier to do a top-down implementation.
SA: My instinct is this one doesn’t quite go like that, but I think it’s always like super hard to predict.
What’s your instinct?
SA: That it kind of just seeps through the economy and mostly kind of like eats things little by little and then faster and faster.
You talk a lot about scientific breakthroughs as a reason to invest in AI, Dwarkesh Patel recently raised the point that there haven’t been any yet. Why not? Can AI actually create or discover something new? Are we over-indexing on models that just aren’t that good and that’s the real issue?
SA: Yeah, I think the models just aren’t smart enough yet. I don’t know. You hear people with Deep Research say like, “Okay, the model is not independently discovering new science, but it is helping me discover new science much faster.” And that, to me, is like pretty much as good.
Do you think a transformer-based architecture can ever truly create new things or is it just spitting out the median level of the Internet?
SA: Yes.
Well, what’s going to be the breakthrough there?
SA: I mean, I think we’re on the path. I think we just need to keep doing our thing. I think we’re like on the path…
…Do humans have innate creativity or is it just recombining knowledge in different sorts of ways?
SA: One of my favorite books is The Beginning of Infinity by David Deutsch, and early on in that book, there’s a beautiful few pages about how creativity is just taking something you saw before and modifying it a little bit. And then if something good comes out of it, someone else modifies it a little bit and someone else modifies it a little bit. And I can sort of believe that. And if that’s the case, then AI is good at modifying things a little bit.
To what extent is the view that you could believe that grounded in your long-standing beliefs versus what you’ve observed, because I think this is a very interesting — not to get all sort of high-level metaphysical or feel, like I said, theological almost — but there does seem to be a bit where one’s base assumptions fuel one’s assumptions about AI’s possibilities. And then, most of Silicon Valley is materialistic, atheistic, however you want to put it. And so of course, we’ll figure it out, it’s just a biological function, we can recreate it in computers. If it turns out we never actually do create new things, but we augment humans creating new things, would that change your core belief system?
SA: It’s definitely part of my core belief system from before. None of this is anything new, but no, I would assume we just didn’t figure out the right AI architecture yet and at some point, we will.
4. The Last Decision by the World’s Leading Thinker on Decisions – Jason Zweig
Kahneman was widely mourned nearly a year ago when his death was announced. Only close friends and family knew, though, that it transpired at an assisted-suicide facility in Switzerland. Some are still struggling to come to terms with his decision…
…But I never got to say goodbye to Danny and don’t fully understand why he felt he had to go. His death raises profound questions: How did the world’s leading authority on decision-making make the ultimate decision? How closely did he follow his own precepts on how to make good choices? How does his decision fit into the growing debate over the downsides of extreme longevity? How much control do we, and should we, have over our own death?…
…I think Danny wanted, above all, to avoid a long decline, to go out on his terms, to own his own death. Maybe the principles of good decision-making that he had so long espoused—rely on data, don’t trust most intuitions, view the evidence in the broadest possible perspective—had little to do with his decision.
His friends and family say that Kahneman’s choice was purely personal; he didn’t endorse assisted suicide for anyone else and never wished to be viewed as advocating it for others.
Some of Kahneman’s friends think what he did was consistent with his own research. “Right to the end, he was a lot smarter than most of us,” says Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania. “But I am no mind reader. My best guess is he felt he was falling apart, cognitively and physically. And he really wanted to enjoy life and expected life to become decreasingly enjoyable. I suspect he worked out a hedonic calculus of when the burdens of life would begin to outweigh the benefits—and he probably foresaw a very steep decline in his early 90s.”
Tetlock adds, “I have never seen a better-planned death than the one Danny designed.”…
…As I wrote in a column about Kahneman last year: “I once showed him a letter I’d gotten from a reader telling me—correctly but rudely—that I was wrong about something. ‘Do you have any idea how lucky you are to have thousands of people who can tell you you’re wrong?’ Danny said.”…
…Kahneman knew the psychological importance of happy endings. In repeated experiments, he had demonstrated what he called the peak-end rule: Whether we remember an experience as pleasurable or painful doesn’t depend on how long it felt good or bad, but rather on the peak and ending intensity of those emotions.
“It was a matter of some consternation to Danny’s friends and family that he seemed to be enjoying life so much at the end,” says a friend. “‘Why stop now?’ we begged him. And though I still wish he had given us more time, it is the case that in following this carefully thought-out plan, Danny was able to create a happy ending to a 90-year life, in keeping with his peak-end rule. He could not have achieved this if he had let nature take its course.”
Did turning 90 play a role in his decision? Kahneman and Tversky’s early research showed that when people are uncertain, they will estimate numbers by “anchoring,” or seizing on any figure that happens to be handy, regardless of how relevant it is to the decision.
Another of Kahneman’s principles was the importance of taking what he called the outside view: Instead of regarding each decision as a special case, you should instead consider it as a member of a class of similar situations. Gather data on comparable examples from that reference class, then consider why your particular case might have better or worse prospects.
One possible approach: Kahneman could have gathered data to determine whether people who live to the age of 95 or beyond tend to regret not dying at the age of 90—adjusting for the difficulty of getting reliable reports from patients with dementia and other debilitating conditions. Perhaps he did something along those lines; I don’t know…
…As Danny’s final email continued:
I discovered after making the decision that I am not afraid of not existing, and that I think of death as going to sleep and not waking up. The last period has truly not been hard, except for witnessing the pain I caused others. So if you were inclined to be sorry for me, don’t be.
As death approaches, should we make the best of whatever time we have left with those we love the most? Or should we spare them, and ourselves, from as much as possible of our inevitable decline? Is our death ours alone to own?
Danny taught me the importance of saying “I don’t know.” And I don’t know the answers to those questions. I do know the final words of his final email sound right, yet somehow feel wrong:
Thank you for helping make my life a good one.
5. Dead of Winter – Doomberg
After a somewhat colder-than-average winter and the cessation of gas flows through the very Sudzha pipeline that Russian special forces just snaked through for their surprise assault, European natural gas storage levels are at dangerously low levels for this time of year:…
…The last energy crisis began many months before Russia’s military crossed into Ukraine. Europe’s vulnerability—driven by a foolish decision to forgo topping off its reserves in the summer of 2021—almost certainly convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin that he held sufficient leverage to risk war in early 2022. Three years later, with the conflict seemingly entering its final stages, surely the continent isn’t repeating the mistakes of the recent past? Perhaps it is:
“As the first proper winter in Europe in three years is drawing to an end, the continent faces a race against time—and prices—to restock with natural gas for next winter…
Europe could need as many as 250 additional [liquefied natural gas] LNG cargoes to arrive in the summer to refill its inventories back up to 90% by November 1, as the current EU regulation stipulates, per Reuters calculations reported by columnist Ron Bousso… The LNG market appears to be tightening, with supply not rising fast enough in early 2025 to meet demand.”…
…Europe’s vulnerability is now measurably higher compared to three years ago. Russian natural gas no longer flows through the Nord Stream and Yamal pipelines, nor various connections through Ukraine, eliminating access to a total capacity of 18 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d). Only the two pipelines entering Turkey via the Black Sea—TurkStream and Blue Stream—are still pumping gas. The balance of European demand will need to be met by expensive LNG imports, primarily from the US and Qatar.
Unfortunately for Europe, the LNG market has been facing challenges just as the continent appears poised to rely on it more than ever…
…Despite these many delays, some relief is in sight for 2025 with two major LNG expansions activating in the US. Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion produced its first cargo in February, adding 1.3 bcf/d of capacity. The first phase of Plaquemines LNG—built by the controversial firm Venture Global and itself a 1.3bcf/d facility—is in the commissioning process, a milestone celebrated last week by Chris Wright, Trump’s new Secretary of Energy…
…The one event that could significantly disrupt energy markets and pose a serious challenge to Brussels would be a major terrorist attack on European infrastructure. For example, if either of the large pipelines passing through Turkey were taken offline, prices would likely spike sharply. The loss of a large LNG import terminal, such as those in Spain or France, would also create severe strain. When operating on the edge, even small disturbances can knock the system out of equilibrium.
While Europe is playing an extremely risky game, absent the edge cases, it is likely to muddle through the next year without a full-blown disaster.
Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. We currently have a vested interest in Alphabet (parent of Google), Costco, Meta Platforms (parent of Facebook), and Microsoft. Holdings are subject to change at any time.